Is being financially literate a priority for you?

Mugs & Money is June 4, a new potential newsletter focused on personal finance, Bennett reframes the recession debate, Tim explores AI for predicting stock movements.

Mugs & Money: Generative AI & the Future of Personal Finance

How will AI change your personal finances? We want to stay on the cutting edge of these changes and make them available to you.

We’ll cover:

• New AI tools to empower your financial journey

• Essential skills in an AI-driven world

• AI-driven changes to investing and investment management

• How AI will impact self-employment and side hustles

• How Hoskin Capital is implementing AI tools to serve clients better

Learn More & RSVP

01. A personal finance newsletter that starts from ground 0

From Nate Hoskin, Founder & Lead Advisor

I adore this newsletter. I’m blown away that nearly 1,000 people read this newsletter top to bottom every week. This has been a free flow of consciousness from the Hoskin Capital team to you and I absolutely want to keep doing it.

On top of this weekly update, I want to write a newsletter that teaches financial literacy from the ground up. So many people in our world feel behind on their financial knowledge and it’s a national disaster that is only getting worse.

I’ll use an example: most Americans have a 401(k) right now and have no idea if they are using it right (or using it at all). The reason is not that you’re lazy, it’s that 401(k)s are insanely complicated! I have spent over 10,000 hours studying retirement, so I feel confident I could explain a 401(k) to you in a single letter.

Before I dive into this project I would love to know, would you read it? Would it be worth your time to spend 10 minutes a week learning a financial strategy that you could implement immediately?

We would include our flowcharts, our articles, and give you access to our Knowledge Base so that if you find something in the newsletter you really want to dive into, you can access all of our other resources.

Yes, I would read it.

No, I wouldn’t.

02. Keeping the Big Picture

From Bennett Fees, Economic Research Associate

Retail sales data was released on Tuesday and showed growth with a monthly increase of .4%, primarily led by motor vehicle sales. In a separate report, industrial production was up .5% month over month as well. Underreported in most coverage of this data, however, is their respective yearly trajectory

Take retail sales, visualized above, where the inflation adjusted numbers have already turned negative. Keep in mind that it is typically only during a recession when both the real and nominal retail sales trend negatively. This is not to place any heightened emphasis on this particular source of data but a reminder not mistake the picture for it’s frame.

Capacity utilization, provided by the Federal Reserve Board, measures production output relative toward its capacity. The goal is to gauge the sustainable level of maximum output accounting for things like work schedules and the availability of inputs. Again, the trend downward is important, but in this case, the level out capacity utilization is still well above recession levels. Given the little movement in both measures, analysts see this confirming the Fed’s decision to pause.

Indeed, the question that seems to be on everyone’s mind is not whether there will be a pause, but when it will end, and in which direction this might come.

03. Beyond Sentiment Analysis: AI's Unexpected Potential in Stock Predictions

From Tim Frenzel, Head of Research & Data Analytics

I've been delving into an intriguing question lately: While they aren't explicitly trained for this task, can generative artificial intelligence, specifically large language models, accurately predict stock market movements using a sentiment data driven approach?

The answer may surprise you.

Our research findings indicate that ChatGPT may outperform traditional sentiment analysis methods. This paints a fascinating picture of a potential shift in the predictive techniques used in the investment industry. It also underscores the increasing importance of natural language processing and AI in finance, foreshadowing a future where AI is integral to investment decision making.

Such advancements could redefine the landscape of employment within the finance industry. But the question we need to address now is—are we prepared for this imminent shift?

Fortune sides with him who dares.

-Virgil

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