On The Agenda

1. Quiet firing or loud firing?

2. What to do if you lose your job ^LUMINARY

3. The Fed can’t make up its mind

4. How we measure the Fed’s uncertainty ^LUMINARY

5. I’m writing a book

6. 3 things I will never cheap out on as an advisor ^LUMINARY

Be one step ahead of your employer

From Jon Scott, Lead Author 

Your manager asked you to attend a meeting later that day. You go about your workday, attending the evening meeting. Your manager informs you that there are some shortcomings in your recent work, and suggests new targets you need to hit in order to return to good graces. These goals are contained in a document, which your manager asks you to sign at the end of the discussion. Like it or not, you were most likely put on a Performance Improvement Plan, commonly called a PIP for short. Even if you are not required to sign the document at the end, any meeting regarding shortfalls in your performance and new targets to rectify those shortcomings should be taken with concern.

Why does this matter?

That first meeting with your manager is likely a first step toward pushing you out of the organization. Even if you are certain your manager likes you and thinks you do good work, it may be your manager’s manager attempting to fire you for cause.

There are a couple of things to consider when you get put on a PIP. The first is the task at hand. Are the metrics on the PIP reasonable—and not just reasonable in terms of difficulty, but reasonable in terms of are they goals you want to work hard to achieve? Sometimes a job asks us to do things we are not comfortable with. Personally, when I was put on a PIP it was because I no longer enjoyed my job and felt what was being asked of me was unreasonable from a business and quality of work perspective. You need to be real with yourself. Is management asking for something you can accomplish? Second, you will likely need to consider searching for a new job if you haven’t already. Even if you want to stay at your current company, there is a strong possibility this will not be possible and it’s important to have another job or at least be in the process of securing another job offer if you are let go from your current position. In my case, I had already started to look for new positions but being put on a PIP simply hastened my search. Being put on a PIP is never fun, but being prepared for the worst gives you the option to bounce back quickly.

What to do if you lose your job ^{LUMINARY SECTION}

Losing a job can be both shocking and scary. Right now, many people are experiencing tighter budgets with little room for a loss of income. Therefore, it’s important that if you are fired or let go from a job, you are prepared to take steps to get back on the right track as soon as possible.

We are still offering a free trial to our Luminary subscription, and signing up for the trial will allow you to see our full step-by-step guide on what to do.

The Fed is not very confident

From Bennett Fees, Economic Research Associate

The decision-making body for the Federal Reserve when it comes to interest rate decisions, the FOMC, met on Wednesday and decided to keep interest rates steady. While this decision was aligned with market expectations, the other big piece of information was the latest release of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). This is a survey of the 19 members of the FOMC on their predictions for economic growth, unemployment, inflation, and interest rates for the next three years. While this survey doesn’t tell the future of policy, it does give us hints.

One piece that stood out was that the median interest rate for the next two years both moved up by half of a percentage point. We can see a measure of the range of predictions in the chart below.

These estimates are wildly different. For starters, in 2025, the range of projections vary from 2.5 percent to 5.75 percent making the 3.75 and 4 percent median projection pretty watery.

So what does this mean?

At his press conference, Jerome Powell reiterated that the route to 2 percent inflation, the Fed’s target, “has a long way to go”. In other words, interest rates are predicted to stay high, all else equal for the foreseeable future, even if this is all couched in lots of uncertainty.

Yet, the range of expectations is only one way to evaluate uncertainty. My Luminary Section this week investigates another approach to quantify this, one of which paints a different picture… 

How we measure the Fed’s uncertainty ^{LUMINARY SECTION}

Diving a bit deeper into my section above, I wanted to cover another key way we can gauge the uncertainty of the Fed.

One way, covered above, is the range of expectations for interest rate projections. This is a very practical way to read the Fed’s actions. But we don’t have to read into it because they just tell us.

Consider the following two charts. The first shows the relative uncertainty of FOMC members regarding the change in GDP, unemployment, and inflation. The second shows the range of interest rate projections for the next three years. Oddly, uncertainty is decreasing as the range of FOMC estimates is increasing.

So apparently I’m writing a book.

From Nate Hoskin, Founder & Lead Advisor

I have been throwing this idea around for a while, and I’ve decided I’m going to write a book to put everything I have learned, written, and shared into a tangible format. I read between 30 and 40 books a year and I am a firm believer that if you want to truly understand something, there is no better way to dive in.

Last night, I wrote the introductory page and wanted to share it here.

We are materials born in supernovas that were combined in patterns complex enough that we can think and perceive. In that way, we are the eyes of the universe. We are the means by which the universe tries to understand itself.

And with all that power and privilege we decided to invent money.

Why?

Arguably, we are the ministers of our own distress. Money is not our birthright it’s our own creation.

But money is not an accident or a curse, it has an essential role to play. By inventing money, we created a structure that incentivizes brilliant people to explore and understand more of the universe.

I’m not just talking about gravity and the phenomena larger than us, I’m talking about the smaller infinities too like atoms, energy, light, and magnets. I’m talking about the people who delve into our own minds to find the ways our unique perspectives bend the universe to shape our own beliefs.

Money is stored energy. It’s a bullet or a coiled spring. Not evil or benevolent by definition, but indisputably volatile and powerful.

And like it or not, money is a cornerstone of our existence and it’s not going anywhere. We can use that stored energy to build the lives we want, or let it destroy us.

Before we attempt to control or collect it, we need to understand money. That’s why I’m writing this book.

3 things I will never cheap out on as an advisor ^{LUMINARY SECTION}

Cheaper is not always better, but the common mantra around saving money and budgeting well makes it seem that way. These are the things I will never cheap out on.

1. My Bed

If any of you have had a “panic nap”, you know how valuable sleep can be when it comes to performing, being consistent, and just staying happy. If I’m going to spend a third of my life lying on something, it’s not going to sag or make me sweat. I’ll pay extra to avoid sleepless nights, back pain, and decreased productivity. A good mattress also lasts a decade or more, saving money in the long run.